Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Now This Really Blows...!

As if you didn't already have enough to worry about, I thought I had better bring you this update from the Almanac!

While it doesn't affect every one, it does become a big concern for many of us! Especially those of us that live in the coastal areas!

Now don't think that just because you live pretty far inland that this is not a problem for you...because history has shown us that it can indeed affect the northern states as well!

2010 Hurricane Forecast

Summary of Forecast

As of June 2, the 2010 Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast has been revised upward. "We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall," say meteorology experts Colorado State University. "All factors are lining up for a very active 2010 hurricane season."

El Niño has undergone a transition from moderate conditions to the currently observed neutral conditions. Presently, the tropical Atlantic has an unusually warm sea surface temperature, which is expected to remain throughout the 2010 hurricane season. The combination of these two factors create conditions that are favorable for the formation and intensification of hurricanes.

2010 Hurricane Forecast

Forecast Parameter (1950-2000 Climatology) 2010 Forecast
Named tropical storms (9.6) 18
Named tropical storm days (49.1) 90
Hurricanes (5.9) 10
Hurricane days (24.5) 40
Major hurricanes (2.3) 5
Intense hurricane days (5) 13
Net tropical cyclone activity (100%) 195%

Note: Forecasts cover the Atlantic Basin—the area encompassing the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. See up-to-the-moment weather maps at The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

2010 Hurricane Landfall Probabilities

Though individual hurricane landfall can not be accurately forecast for an individual year, the following shows the probability for at least one major hurricane (category 3-4-5) landfall on each of the following coastal areas. Averages for the last century are shown in parenthesis.

  • Entire US Coastline: 76% (52%)
  • US East Coast including Peninsula Florida: 51% (31%)
  • Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville: 50% (30%)
  • Tracking into the Caribbean: 65% (42%)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Average Wind (mph) Representative Hurricanes
Category One 74 - 95 Danny; 1997
Category Two 96 - 110 Bonnie & Georges; 1998
Category Three 111 - 130 Rita; 2005
Category Four 131 - 155 Charley; 2004
Category Five 156 + Andrew; 1992

My suggestion? Make sure you have plenty of food, water, and alternative lighting know, just in case! That goes double for the coffee and maybe just an extra bottle or two of the ol' "snake bite" medicine! Know what I mean?

Just could be you'll need it all this year!

Now, how about some fresh coffee and conversation in the kitchen? Raining again outside!


Catman said...

- 2 oz light rum
- 2 oz dark rum
- 2 oz passion fruit juice
- 1 oz orange juice
- 1/2 oz fresh lime juice
- 1 tbsp simple syrup
- 1 tbsp grenadine
- Garnish: orange slice and cherry

Now you're all set for your Hurricane!

HermitJim said...

Hey Catman...
Been there and had several of 'em! I even almost remember what happened after having one or two!

Hey, thanks for the visit!

Anonymous said...

Excellent advice Mr. Hermit. Being from Miami and having been through a few of these storms, I recommend a few doses of the snake bite medicine, before, during & after. As preventative measures, of course.


Ben in Texas said...

You ever stop to think, these weathermen make a big bucks forecasting the weather and it don't matter if they are right or wrong.. How do I get a job like that?
Morning Sir Jim, coffee on the deck or patio this morning? Not raining here.

HermitJim said...

Hey Chucky...
now that sounds like a plan to me! One thing about certainly can't hurt!

Hey, thanks for coming by today!

Hey Ben...
eems like we keep swapping off with this rain and weather!

Oh well, that's the way the weather goes here in Texas, huh?

Thanks, my friend, for coming by today!

Momlady said...

Mornin' HJ...missed you the last couple of days. Monday the site was unavailable and yesterday I had company and couldn't get to the 'puter.
Been through a few storms myself and, although I don't live near the coast anymore, I know that where I live can suffer side effects anyway.
I think you're sending the rain this way. Wish it would wait 'til after the weekend, but oh well.
Have a great day.

HermitJim said...

Hey Momlady...
Sorry you couldn't get in yesterday or the day before!

Hey, I'm more than happy to share some of this rain with you, believe me!

Have a great day...and thanks for the visit!

Mechanic in Illinois said...

My suggestion for everyone even inland people is to get a whole bunch of citrus degreaser because when the hurricanes start blowing all that oil everything is going to be covered. It's going to be a slippery situation. Thanks for another great lesson.

HermitJim said...

Hey Mechanic...
Things could get interesting, that's for sure!

I do hope we don't end up with some "black rain" but you just don't ever know what to expect with this stuff!

Thanks for coming by today!

Did it MY way said...

Good advice Jim;
In the last 28 years I've been thru a few.

Cat 1= Nice rain
Cat 2= A little extra rain
Cat 3= Time for a little Jack
Cat 4= Get the F%#K out of Dodge
Cat 5= Visit treesong in Michigan

Hev packed, stocked, and ready to roll if needed.

See Ya

HermitJim said...

Hey Tony...
Sounds like very good advice to me! Especially the part about a little Jack!

Thanks for coming by.

Anonymous said...

Getting the hurricane impact windows installed next week! Got gas for the generator and plenty of supplies! Been in FL for 26 years, gotta learn to live with it! I just hate the damn hype the media puts out when a storm is approaching!

Brad in South FL

HermitJim said...

Hey Brad...
Those of us that live in the hurricane areas just have to learn to live with it, just like you say!

All of us that know what's coming always prepare...others have to do the best they can!

It does pay to be a Prepper, doesn't it?

Hey, thanks for coming by today!

Beatrice P. Boyd said...

Weather predictions not sounding too good. Maybe it would be best to take some of that "snake bite" medication before the storm - that way it might not seem so bad. Good idea on the extra coffee, but if there's no power it will be tough to enjoy a cup.

HermitJim said...

Hey Beatrice...
That's why I always keep my camp stove set up and ready during the storm season! I also have a couple of non-electric coffee pots ready to go!

One way or the other...gotta have my coffee!

Hey, thanks for coming by today!