As if you didn't already have enough to worry about, I thought I had better bring you this update from the Almanac!
While it doesn't affect every one, it does become a big concern for many of us! Especially those of us that live in the coastal areas!
Now don't think that just because you live pretty far inland that this is not a problem for you...because history has shown us that it can indeed affect the northern states as well!
2010 Hurricane Forecast
Summary of Forecast
As of June 2, the 2010 Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast has been revised upward. "We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall," say meteorology experts Colorado State University. "All factors are lining up for a very active 2010 hurricane season."
El Niño has undergone a transition from moderate conditions to the currently observed neutral conditions. Presently, the tropical Atlantic has an unusually warm sea surface temperature, which is expected to remain throughout the 2010 hurricane season. The combination of these two factors create conditions that are favorable for the formation and intensification of hurricanes.
2010 Hurricane Forecast
| Forecast Parameter (1950-2000 Climatology) | 2010 Forecast |
|---|---|
| Named tropical storms (9.6) | 18 |
| Named tropical storm days (49.1) | 90 |
| Hurricanes (5.9) | 10 |
| Hurricane days (24.5) | 40 |
| Major hurricanes (2.3) | 5 |
| Intense hurricane days (5) | 13 |
| Net tropical cyclone activity (100%) | 195% |
Note: Forecasts cover the Atlantic Basin—the area encompassing the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. See up-to-the-moment weather maps at The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.
2010 Hurricane Landfall Probabilities
Though individual hurricane landfall can not be accurately forecast for an individual year, the following shows the probability for at least one major hurricane (category 3-4-5) landfall on each of the following coastal areas. Averages for the last century are shown in parenthesis.
- Entire US Coastline: 76% (52%)
- US East Coast including Peninsula Florida: 51% (31%)
- Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville: 50% (30%)
- Tracking into the Caribbean: 65% (42%)
| Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale | Average Wind (mph) | Representative Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| Category One | 74 - 95 | Danny; 1997 |
| Category Two | 96 - 110 | Bonnie & Georges; 1998 |
| Category Three | 111 - 130 | Rita; 2005 |
| Category Four | 131 - 155 | Charley; 2004 |
| Category Five | 156 + | Andrew; 1992 |
My suggestion? Make sure you have plenty of food, water, and alternative lighting available...you know, just in case! That goes double for the coffee and maybe just an extra bottle or two of the ol' "snake bite" medicine! Know what I mean?
Just could be you'll need it all this year!
Now, how about some fresh coffee and conversation in the kitchen? Raining again outside!
