Saturday, September 11, 2010

Better Stock Up On Coffee...!

I have a feeling that this is going to be a real problem, and one that marks the preview of things to come!

Coffee has surged to a 13 year high, making me think we are going to be in trouble pretty soon!

Add to that the fact that the U.S. supply is down over 5% from the same time as last year...and the future is looking bleak for those of us that like coffee!

I guess things could get worse! It could be a world wide shortage of toilet paper!

That would be a even worse disaster, especially with all the CRAP being spread around in the political circles these days!

Know just how to tell when these guys are lying? Easy...if their lips are moving!

Coffee prices on the rise

By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
September 10, 2010: 7:55 AM ET

NEW YORK ( -- You may soon find yourself paying more for your morning coffee - if you aren't already.

A trifecta of bad news has sent coffee futures soaring 44% since June, and companies such as Dunkin' Donuts, Green Mountain and Maxwell House are passing on those costs.

Bad weather in South America is threatening crops. Brazil and top exporter Vietnam are talking about hoarding their stocks. And U.S. stockpiles are reportedly at 10-year lows.

That means higher prices for U.S. coffee companies, which, in turn, may mean higher prices for consumers.

Bagged coffee from Folgers, Dunkin' Donuts and Millstone already costs 10% more. The three brands' parent company, J.M. Smucker (SJM), cited "sustained increases in green coffee costs" in announcing the price hike last month.

Kraft Foods (KFT, Fortune 500) raised prices of Maxwell House Coffee and Yuban coffee products by about 9% last month as well. That translates into a price hike of 5 cents to 30 cents per pound of ground coffee and an increase of 2.5 cents per ounce for instant coffee.

And single-serve K-cups - sold as Tully's Coffee, Timothy's Coffee, Newman's Own Organics, Caribou Coffee and other Green Mountain Coffee brands - will see prices rise 10% to 15%, starting Oct. 11. Sales of the brewing system and K-cups make up about 86% of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR)'s business.

"Like others in the coffee industry, we have been closely monitoring rising green coffee costs," Scott McCreary, president of Green Mountain's specialty coffee unit, said in a statement. "While we have the flexibility to absorb some short-term cost increases, the sustained nature of the increases we've experienced over the past three months led us to conclude it is necessary to adjust our pricing."

The ripple effect: As retailers start paying more, the coffee you drop into your shopping cart may very soon start costing you more at the register.

Supermarket chain Publix said it has left some coffee prices unchanged to remain competitive. But the grocer has boosted prices on some brands, including a container of Folgers Classic Aroma Coffee, which used to cost $8.99 and is now being sold for $9.99.

One bright spot: While you may be paying more at the grocery store, your daily cup of joe at the corner coffee shop may be spared because pricing decisions are made by each shop individually.

"We may at various times increase or decrease prices on some items," Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) said in a statement. "We continually review our food and beverage prices on a market by market basis taking the economic environment, customer demand, competition, cost of goods and labor costs, as well as other factors into consideration."

Popular morning hot spot Dunkin' Donuts said that it's not yet raising prices at its locations.

"Dunkin' Donuts restaurants are independently owned and operated by franchisees, who are responsible for making their own pricing decisions," the company said in a statement. "While we are aware of J.M. Smucker Company's recent price increase for grocery store coffee, it will not impact the cost of coffee in our restaurants."

Supply crunch: With U.S. coffee stockpiles at multi-year lows and world coffee exports down 5.2% in July compared to a year earlier, worries about a supply crunch have driven prices higher.

"It's the age-old principle of supply and demand," said Hector Galvan, a senior trading adviser at RJO Futures. "The larger coffee-growing nations like Colombia and Brazil are having really significant issues getting good crop out to the market."

And while a large crop is expected in Brazil next year, he said poor weather conditions could further cut production in Vietnam and Central American countries from 2010 to 2011.

Track coffee, pork bellies, wheat, and other hot commodities
"The current behavior of prices reflects uncertainties concerning short-term coffee supplies," NĂ©stor Osorio, executive director of the International Coffee Organization, said in a statement.

As uncertainties persist, investors are placing significant bets on where prices are headed, said Galvan, with prices approaching the psychologically important $2-a-pound level.

"With all these supply fears, investors are jumping on the money train - even mom and pop investors want to jump on because of how evident the [production] issues have been over the last couple months," he said.

Now, my friends, let's get some fresh coffee and sit outside for a bit. Oh, and sometimes today, stop and take time to say a prayer for the families of all those that we lost in the attack of 9/11!

God Bless The Families and survivors of the dastardly attack. Also say a prayer of thanks for all the workers and rescue workers tat worked so tirelessly to save lives, OK?


The cottage by the Cranelake said...

This will hit us hard in Sweden and perhaps even harder in Finland, since we are the people drinking most coffee per person. I´m so happy that I like tea as much as coffee :-)

Have a great day now!

Calandreya said...

We will be savoring our last shipment of dark-roasted Guatamalan Antigua, I guess. I like tea, too, but nothing beats that fresh cup of coffee, warm in my hands, with a strong rich flavor.

Ben in Texas said...

UMMM, maybe I need to find a friend in Jamaica to ship me bulk Blue Mountain and another in Hawaii to ship Kona!! I got a grinder so beans would be fine with me.

It's a conspiracy I tell you, most likely brought on by Mickey D's!! :-)

Sixbears said...

I've got 40 pounds of green coffee, various types, in storage. Green coffee keeps for years. Of course, you have to roast it yourself, but that's not that hard. I've done it while camping using a cast iron frying pan with a cover. There are home roasters no more complicated than a popcorn machine. Worth the investment if you are a serious coffee nut. Green beans are cheaper.

Beth said...

It took me years to learn to like coffee and I'm afraid it would take me years longer to learn NOT to like it again. My coffee is so important to me that my daughter has been known to buy me some on occasion!
Love ya!

Dizzy-Dick said...

Now you are scaring me!! I love my coffee, as long as it is strong enough.

You mentioned a tp shortage would be worse. Well, back in the late 60's (it had to be after my 2nd son was born) there was a toilet paper shortage where I lived. People got scared and made matters worse by buying more than usual and cleaning out the stores. Sometimes we don't appreciate things until they are missing.

Ken said...

...well,we've joked about what/when/who would start the second revolution(?)...this may very well be it,half the population jonesing for coffee,makes for some pi$$ed off folks...

...and i only have 6 cans left in the stores???

JoJo said...

Good Morning My Special One
I already noticed 2 weeks ago when I bought coffee it went up 2.47 in less than 2 weeks. This is bad very bad. I have a headache just thinking about not having coffee. 8O

HermitJim said...

Hey Christer...
Sometimes I wish that I liked hot tea, but I never did learn to care for it!I like my tea served cold!

Guess I'll have to try and learn, huh?

I appreciate you coming by today!

Hey Calandreya...
Boy, do I ever hear ya on that! Something about the feel of a fresh, hot cup of coffee in your hand to give you a nice, snug homey feeling!

I certainly do appreciate you coming by today, my friend!

Hey Ben...
I think you're right about the conspiracy thing! I can remember the high prices on sugar and coffee in the past, and I don't want to go through that again!

I may have to start buying the beans and roasting myself!

Always something, huh?

Thanks, buddy, for coming by today!

Hey Six Bears...
I've been thinking about buying some green coffee beans for storage. Looks like it may be the right time to do that!

Thanks for the information! Now I know who to ask if i have any questions, right?

Hey, I appreciate you coming by today!

Hey Sis...
Sounds like the daughter just wants to keep you from being grouchy! We all have something that pushes our bad mood button...and running out of coffee is certainly one of them!

Thank you for coming over this morning!

Hey Dizzy...
I went through a shortage before...and it certainly makes you stop and think!

Guess that being a Prepper is not such a bad thing after all! Never know when it could come in handy!

Gotta redo my shopping list for this month! I'm in trouble if I don't!

Thanks, buddy, for coming by!

Hey Ken...
A coffee shortage would bring some bad attitudes on real fast! I keep seeing visions of coffee hungry mobs storming the government warehouses...looking for a coffee source!

Maybe this is a great story line for a movie, ya think?

Man, I do thank you for coming by today, my friend!

Hey JoJo...
That's a pretty good jump, for sure! You had certainly better stock up, sweetie!

Don't want you to have to do without! Coffee, that is!

Thanks, dear, for coming by today!

Dizzy-Dick said...

Your reply to "Ken" saying it would make a good movie line is correct, but add your Zombie post to it and you got a box office hit called "caffeine depleted zombies attack".

Mayberry said...

Bummer! Glad I don't drink coffee...

HermitJim said...

Hey Dizzy...
Kinda like a really bad Zombie movie on steroids!

Wonder why images of the horror movies of the '60s are running through my mind right now?

Hey Mayberry...
Don't know why, but I always had you figured for a coffee drinker!

Glad for your sake that you aren't...!

Hey, buddy, thanks for coming by today!

Frugal Canadian Hermit said...

That kinda concerns me a bit Jim. And it should concern the rest of my area too, cause they might not like me if I don't get my coffee.

HermitJim said...

Hey Hermit...
I know what you mean, my friend! My cats even give me a wide berth if I haven't had my coffee!

Better warn the neighbors...they may want to take up a collection to help stock up for ya!

Thanks so much for coming by today!

Fred said...

Right, and if cigarettes ever get to a dollar a pack, people will quit them too! They will probably just charge you the same price for a smaller container and most people will not even notice the difference like all of the other companies do! The biggest scammers have been the liquor industry going to metric sizes! The old 1/2 pint is 6.8 ozs and when they done that, they raised the price too!

Marjie said...

I'll pay for hubster's coffee no matter what, but I'll stick with my tea.

September 11, 2001: I will Never Forget.

HermitJim said...

Hey Fred...
That's been done by the coffee folks before! Went from 16 ounce to 11.5 ounce at the same price!

Didn't know the info about the booze, though!

Hey, thanks for coming by today!

Hey Marjie...
That's very nice of you! I'm sure he appreciates it as well!

Reckon he would do the same for you, don't you?

Sounds like a good partnership to me...!

Thanks for dropping in today!

Tatersmama said...

Oh dear... *gulp*
Here in Oz, I'm currently paying $21. for a 2 kg bag of Columbian!
(2 kilograms = 4.409lbs)
I guess I'll have to learn to cut corners somewhere... because I WON'T be giving up my morning coffee!!
Say it ain't so about the Joe, Joe! Ermmm, I mean... about eh Joe, Hermit Jim! ;)

Kelle said...

I'm a herbal tea drinker, personally but my Dh is a coffee drinker, so when on sale I stock up. Last sale I bought coffee at was a year ago and it was a store brand coffee(Western Family)#2 can for $3.99 ea., so I bought 4 cases. Now yesterday same store, same brand on sale it's $7.99 a 2# can. Sure glad we're stocked up. :o) Also and maybe this is taboo with strict coffee drinkers, maybe you may have to us alternative items to make your coffee. It may be better than nothing.

HermitJim said...

Hey Kate...
That's a prett5y high price for coffee, and sounds to me like you should be stocking up for sure, just in case it does go up there!

I sure would hate for you to run out and have to start on something else!

I sure do appreciate you coming by today!

Hey Kelle...
That's a pretty big jump in price, for sure! Looks like stocking up is a good idea, if you can find it on sale at a good price some where!

I've tried many alternatives for coffee but haven't found any I care for!

Thanks so much for coming by today, my friend!